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Introduction
I am a student of Maris Stella high school doing a research on Climate Changes. We were supposed to choose a topic and find out more about it. After researching, we were supposed to choose a product that we want to make and present about our finding.
My group name is V Formation and my group members are (Dominic SS), (Jun Xiang), (Brendan Tan) and (Gregory Tay). We have chosen Global warming for the main topic, and how greenhouse gases contribute to it for the sub topic. As for our product, we have decided to do a comic strip to educate the public more about global warming and research paper to educate the public about what we have found out during the project.
Findings
General Relationship of Temperature and Photosynthesis
C Field & D Lobell. Environmental Research Letters, 2007:
A 1oC increase reduces global cereal grain crop yields by 6-10%. So, a rise of 2oC could mean 12-20% fall in global production.
What is green house effect?
Energy from the sun drives the earth's weather and climate, and heats the earth's surface; in turn, the earth radiates energy back into space. Atmospheric greenhouse gases (water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases) trap some of the outgoing energy, retaining heat somewhat like the glass panels of a greenhouse.
What caused Global warming?
Natural changes in climate take place over many years; this allows animals and plants to adapt to new environments. Scientists have discovered that the earth’s temperature is increasing too rapidly and that’s due to the amount of Carbon Dioxide that is released in to the atmosphere.
The primary factors underlying environmental degradation include: economic growth, broad technological changes, demographic shifts and governance structures. These can give rise to:
Increased demand for natural resources and energy
Market imperfections, e.g., subsidies that lead to the inefficient use of resources and act as a barrier to the market penetration of climate sound technologies; the lack of recognition of the true value of natural resources; failure to appropriate the global values of natural resources to the local level; and the failure to internalize the social costs of environmental degradation into the market price of a resource
Limited availability and transfer of technology, inefficient use of technologies, and inadequate investment in research and development for the technologies of the future
–Failure to manage adequately the use of natural resources and energy
The sun’s rays penetrate our atmosphere and keep the planet warm. Unfortunately because the Earth’s big gassy blanket is so thick, no heat can escape. The Earth retains the suns heat causing the planet to warm up more quickly than it should.
What is Global Warming?
We have most likely all heard that the climate is getting warmer and areas of the globe are having more “intense” weather systems, e.g. drought in Australia, fires in California, Hurricane in New Orleans, Earthquake and Tsunami in Indonesia etc. Has Britain’s weather changed? Has anyone noticed any local effects? E.g. Spring coming early, unusually wet Summer/dry Winter, flowers blooming early, etc.
-The Earth receives energy from the Sun in the form of radiation.
-The Earth reflects about 30% of the incoming solar radiation. The remaining 70% is absorbed, warming the land, atmosphere and oceans.
-For the Earth's temperature to be in equilibrium so that the Earth does not rapidly heat or cool, this absorbed solar radiation must be very nearly balanced by energy radiated back to space in the infrared wavelengths.
-The figure on the left shows the absorption bands in the Earth's atmosphere (middle panel), I.e. the wavelength spectrum (UV, IR, visible light) that is absorbed by the atmosphere, and the effect that this has on both solar radiation (energy from the sun) and upgoing thermal radiation (energy reflected from the Earth) (top panel).
-Individual absorption spectrum for major greenhouse gases are also shown.
-You can see that high amounts of UV and IR wavelengths from the sun are absorbed by the atmosphere, whereas much of the visible light spectrum passes through (allowing us to see!). Of the up-going thermal radiation (blue) a budget of IR wavelengths pass through the atmosphere to be lost to space.
-The figure on the right is a simplified, schematic representation of the flows of energy between space, the atmosphere, and the Earth's surface, showing how these flows combine to trap heat near the surface and create the greenhouse effect.
-Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2); values from Kiehl and Trenberth (1997).
-The sun provides an annual average of ~235 W/m2 of energy to the Earth’s surface. If this were the total heat received at the surface, then we would be expect to have an average global temperature of -18°C. Instead, the Earth's atmosphere recycles heat coming from the surface and delivers an additional 324 W/m2, which results in an average surface temperature of roughly +14 ° C.
-Of the surface heat captured by the atmosphere, more than 75% can be attributed to the action of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide etc.) that absorb thermal radiation (the up-going energy emitted by the Earth's surface).
-The atmosphere in turn transfers the energy it receives both into space (38%) and back to the Earth's surface (62%), where the amount transferred in each direction depends on the thermal and density structure of the atmosphere.
-This process by which energy is recycled in the atmosphere to warm the Earth's surface is known as the greenhouse effect and is an essential piece of Earth's climate.
-Under stable conditions, the total amount of energy entering the system from solar radiation will be exactly the same as the amount being radiated into space, thus allowing the Earth maintain a constant average temperature over time. However, recent measurements indicate that the Earth is presently absorbing 0.85 - 0.15 W/m2 more than it emits into space (Hansen et al. 2005). This increase, associated with global warming, is believed to have been caused by the recent increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.
References:
-Kiehl, J. T. and Trenberth, K. E. (1997). "Earth's Annual Global Mean Energy Budget". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Association 78: 197-208.
-Hansen, J., et al. (2005). "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications". Science 308 (5727): 1431-1435.
-Climate is defined as the weather averaged over a long period of time.
-The standard averaging period is 30 years but other periods may be used depending on the purpose. Climate also includes statistics other than the average, such as the magnitudes of day-to-day or year-to-year variations.
-Therefore, climate is “the average and variations of weather over long periods of time”.
-•Different “Climate Zones” such as tropical, temperate or polar can be defined using parameters such as temperature and rainfall.
The Earths surface temperature has been slowly increasing for the last 15,000 years, since the last Ice age.
Global warming simply refers to an increase in temperature of the Earths surface.
What are some solutions for reducing the impact of transportation on climate change?
Climate Change and Geopolitical Security
“Climate change of the order and time frames predicted by climate scientists poses fundamental questions of human security, survival and the stability of nation states which necessitate judgments about political and strategic risks as well as economic cost.”
Heating Up the Planet: Climate Change and Security.
Dupont A, Pearman G, Lowy Institute Paper 12, 2006
How do we know about climate systems in the past?
-A record of past local environmental conditions may be preserved in early rock art and sculpture.
-For example, rock paintings from Tassili N´Ajjer in Algeria show that the region in Neolithic times was moist and fertile, with abundant water and wildlife. The art depicts herds of cattle, large wild animals including crocodiles, and human activities such as hunting and dancing.
-This area now hosts a sandstone mountain range located in a desert.
-More than 15,000 drawings and engravings record the climatic changes, the animal migrations and the evolution of human life on the edge of the Sahara from 6000 B.C. to the first centuries of the present era.
-Geomorphology is the study of landforms, including their origin and evolution, and the processes that shape them.
-Studying of surface features such as valleys, mountains, river beds, ancient dune and lake deposits can tell you what the environment was like in the past.
-For example, the Lake District in North West England has many valleys shaped like a “U”. They have flat bottoms and steep sides. (As opposed to River Valleys that are typically “V” shaped).
-These were formed by the passage of glaciers that carved their way through the landscape. There are no glaciers there today but from the physical features they left behind we can tell that the area was once covered in ice.
-The Geological record can tell us a lot about past climates.
-Fossils of plants and animals can provide evidence of what the past ecosystem was like.
-For example, fossils of plants and animals in Antarctica show that during the Cambrian period Antarctica had a mild climate. West Antarctica was partially in the northern hemisphere, and East Antarctica was at the equator, where sea-floor invertebrates and trilobites flourished in the tropical seas
-Fossils also show that during the Mesozoic era (250-65 Mya), as a result of continued warming, the polar ice caps melted and the Antarctic Peninsula began to form. Ginkgo trees and cycads were plentiful during this period, as were large reptiles and dinosaurs, though only two Antarctic dinosaur species have been described to date.
-Sediments are a good record of past environments. They can tell a geologist what type of environment deposited them, e.g. a beach, river, desert, ocean etc. And fossils preserved in the sediments will provide information about the biota.
-To sample sedimentary layers deep in the Earth scientists often have to drill for them. The right hand photos show an example of drill core recovered from the ocean floor in the Caribbean. Each dark and light layers represents progressively older sedimentary layers.
Negative Impact of Global Warming
Effects of Temperature Rise on Dengue Transmission
-Shorten viral incubation period in mosquito
-Shorten breeding cycle of mosquito
-Increase frequency of mosquito feeding
-More efficient transmission of dengue virus from mosquito to human
-Other effects of global warming include changes in agricultural yields, glacier retreat, species extinctions and increases in the ranges of disease vectors (carriers).
-Remaining scientific uncertainties include the amount of warming expected in the future, and how warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe. There is ongoing political and public debate worldwide regarding what, if any, action should be taken to reduce or reverse future warming or to adapt to its expected consequences. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol, aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Direct health impacts (heat, extreme events, etc.)
Human Health:
-Injuries/deaths
-Thermal stress
-Infectious diseases
-Malnutrition
-Mental stresses
-Conflict, drugs, etc.
They are indirectly caused by
-Food yields
-Biological & seasonal cycles
-Physical systems
(ice, rivers, etc.)
These affects
Economy: infrastructure, output, growth
Scientists believe that the increased levels of carbon dioxide could cause increased temperatures, changed weather patterns, and rising sea levels.
Other Greenhouse gases include: methane, nitrous oxides, water vapor, and chlorofluorocarbons.
The amount of carbon in the atmosphere has increased by 31% since the start of the industrial revolution in 1750. Levels of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere are at record highs (higher than any level over the past 420,000 years). Furthermore, the 1990s was the warmest decade since the start of reliable temperature data, possibly the warmest decade in the last 1,000 years.
Most scientists have looked at the increase in greenhouse gas levels, coupled with rising average surface temperatures and decreasing snow and ice coverage, as evidence of the effects of “anthropogenic greenhouse gases” (Source: Third IPCC Report).
The impacts of global warming could have severe consequences for human activities. Many of the consequences have environmental, economic, and health impacts. The changed temperatures and weather patterns can disrupt farming practices across nations, making areas that were once fertile no longer suitable for crop production. Changing temperatures might allow for the spread of tropical diseases, such as malaria, into areas that were at one time too cold to provide a suitable environment in which the disease could thrive. The increased temperatures could lead to heat waves that could threaten at-risk populations (especially the elderly, children, and the sick. As an example, consider the heat waves that hit France in the summer of 2003 and the heat waves in India). Rising sea levels could flood coastal cities. Changed weather patterns and increased temperatures might make natural catastrophes, such as hurricanes, more frequent and more severe. These last two impacts have the potential to cause a great deal of economic damage to the world’s economies. From an environmental standpoint, the changed climate patterns could disrupt the natural habitats of various species that may lead to certain extinctions.
The effect of a change in the weather on plant growth may lead to some countries not having enough food. Brazil, parts of Africa, Southeast Asia and China will be affected the most and many people could suffer from hunger.
Higher sea levels will threaten the low-lying coastal areas of the world, such as the Netherlands and Bangladesh. Throughout the world, millions of people and areas of land will be at danger from flooding. Many people will have to leave their homes and large areas of farmland will be ruined because of floods. In Britain, East Anglia and the Thames estuary will be at risk from the rising sea.
Global average temperatures are expected to increase by about 2-13°F (1-7°C) by the end of the century. That may not sound like a lot, so what’s the big deal? The problem is that small changes in global average temperature can lead to really large changes in the environment. Let’s look at some of the expected changes.
The main tools for both past and present climate analyses are computer climate models. Much like the models used to forecast weather, climate models simulate the climate system with a 3-dimensional grid that extends through the land, ocean, and atmosphere. The grid may have 10 to 60 different levels in the atmosphere and surface grid spacing of about 60 by 90 miles (100 by 150 km)—the size of Connecticut. The models perform trillions of calculations that describe changes in many climate factors in the grid
Sea-level rise projections: a few inches to a few feet
-2 ft: U.S. would lose 10,000 square miles
-3 ft: Would inundate Miami
-Affects erosion, loss of wetlands, freshwater supplies
-Half of the world’s population lives along coasts
Big question: Ice sheets
How to prevent global warming?
Health Co-Benefits from GHG Emissions Mitigation Actions: Revitalised Health Promotion?
Reduce fossil fuel combustion:
Reduce cardio-respiratory deaths/hospitalisations from local air pollution (esp. fine particulates).
Low-emission urban (public) transport system:
Increase physical activity (walking, cycling) à reduce over-weight, improve lipid/endocrine profiles, increase social contact and wellbeing.
Road trauma should decline.
Reduce red (ruminant) meat consumption (livestock sector is major source of GHG emissions, esp. methane)
Reduce risks of some disease: large bowel cancer, ?breast cancer; also heart disease (meat fat content).
More energy-efficient housing
Reduce family costs, and (especially for lower-income households) reduce thermal stress – and debt-related mental stress.
There are lots of things each one of us can do to help combat Global Warming. You can start by always switching lights off when you leave a room.
-Currently, the production of hydrogen fuel uses fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are used to separate hydrogen from the other atoms that it is bonded with—a process called electrolysis. When scientists discover a way to power electrolysis with alternative forms of energy -- such as hydro, wind, solar, or biomass sources -- hydrogen has the potential to be renewable and free of emissions at both the consumption and production ends.
-Hydrogen is the ideal fuel for fuel cells. These cells convert chemicals directly into electricity with a high level of efficiency. Fuel cells are already being used for military purposes and space flights; further research is needed before they are economically competitive with the existing technology.
-Hydrogen fuel cells produce water vapor as their byproduct—they are a very clean source of fuel. Disadvantages: Hydrogen fuel cells are currently handicapped by a high cost, the need for large storage containers to hold the hydrogen on the vehicle, the difficulty of obtaining pure hydrogen, and the challenge of undergoing electrolysis (splitting the hydrogen atoms) by efficiently using alternative fuel sources.
Ethanol is produced from fermented corn. Most cars with little engine modification to reduce ghg emissions can use ethanol blends—gasoline plus 5-20% ethanol—. However, the procedure to produce ethanol is very energy intensive and requires the use of fossil fuels. Several transit agencies have experimented with ethanol buses. Their results prove that the buses consume more fuel and end up costing too much. The buses consume more fuel because the energy content of ethanol is lower than regular fuels. The high cost makes it unlikely that ethanol will ever become a widely used alternative for conventional fuel.
Reducing our greenhouse gas emissions and our use of fossil fuels will not be easy, but it is doable. Here’s how some researchers at Princeton view it.
Our current path is toward doubling CO2 emissions in the next 50 years, with even greater increases beyond that. In order to get off this path, we need to find ways to keep emissions constant for the next 50 years and then reduce them during the second half of the century. This would [9] limit atmospheric CO2 to about 570 ppm—still greater than the roughly 380 ppm in the atmosphere today, but enough to avoid the worst predicted consequences.
A majority (60%) of carbon dioxide emissions in the transportation sector come from personal vehicle use. Encouraging the use and development of public transportation reduces the number of cars on the road and reduces total greenhouse gas emissions.
Many communities do not carefully plan for growth. Carefully planned growth should take into account transportation options so that public transit and alternative forms of transportation can access the neighborhoods easily. Also, neighborhoods should heed the need to use transportation. Businesses, stores, and homes can all be located in the same area, often connected by bike paths and walkways. These planned neighborhoods use land efficiently; because of this, it is possible to drive direct routes (this reduces the amount of fuel wasted and thus reduces the amount of overall GHGs released).
If you are going to drive, don’t drive alone. By sharing a ride, you get to have company and help reduce greenhouse gas emissions by limiting the number of cars on the road.
By making sure your car is in tip-top shape, you can reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Cars that are well kept increase fuel efficiency.
New technologies provide another way to reduce emissions. Currently, research is focused on replacing petroleum-based fuels and increasing fuel efficiencies.
Once individuals are aware of how their transportation choices contribute to global climate change, hopefully they will change their habits to reduce emissions.
Most of the rubbish we throw away can be recycled, such as glass bottles and jars, steel and aluminium cans, plastic bottles and waste paper.
Recycling used materials uses less energy than making new ones.
Ask your parents if you have Energy Saving Bulbs in your house, they last much longer than ordinary household bulbs and use much less energy so they are better for the environment.
-Switch lights off when you leave the room.
-Don’t leave anything on standby.
-Walk rather than use the car when possible.
-Cycle more, use you body’s own energy.
-Recycle as much as possible.
To switch equipment off properly it needs to be turned off at the plug.
When you switch off the television with the remote control your TV
Automatically goes into standby or ‘sleep mode’. In ‘sleep mode’ the
TV is still using electricity even though you aren’t watching it.
Of course, you don’t have to take transit or drive to travel from one place to another. Sometimes, the old fashioned methods work out the best in the end anyway. Walking, biking, rollerblading, skateboarding, and other similar activities have almost no impact on the environment. They also have substantial health benefits. Just make sure that you do it safely! For people who live in areas that lack public transportation, walking or biking is a great alternative for individuals who do not want to rely on a personal car. These old fashioned gentlemen were eco-friendly before it was hip to be “green.”
Unplug appliances or plug into a power strip and switch it off
Buy water-saving appliances and toilets; installing low-flow shower heads.
Alcohols can be blended with petroleum fuels as “replacement” fuels this is sometimes called gasohol. No infrastructure change is thus necessary for alcohol. It is compatible with the ubiquitous existing fuel distribution and retailing systems and thus does not have to overcome the transitional barriers faced by alternative fuels.
Public transportation releases fewer greenhouse gas emissions into the air per person than driving does.
§Taking a train or bus is much cheaper than owning a car, and you don’t have to find a parking space once you get to your destination!
Compressed natural gas has been successfully used by transit agencies in New York and Los Angeles. It is gaining popularity across the country because it reduces the emissions of particulate matter and nitrous oxides—two air pollutants that cause much of the urban air pollution. However, CNG may not be effective at reducing GHGs. First of all, CNG’s buses tend to be less efficient than diesel, requiring them to consume more fuel. They are also heavier (CNG requires a heavier fuel tank to keep natural gas pressurized), which again means that they consume more fuel. And most importantly, there is an increase in methane emissions. Methane, a GHG, is much more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide. Therefore, a decrease in CO2 emissions can be offset by a very small increase in methane emissions. Transit agencies view CNG as a transitional fuel choice; the most promising replacements for CNG buses are hybrid-electric buses.
Recognition of health risks will potentate true primary prevention – i.e. the reduction of GHG emissions.
Health risks already exist and more are unavoidable. So, we must develop and evaluate adaptive strategies.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WkGp2 Report (2007): Some Key Findings
Water: 75-250m Africans may face water-shortage by 2020.
Crops:
Crop yields could: increase by 20% in some parts of Southeast Asia … but decrease by up to 30% in Central/South Asia.
Glaciers and snow cover: Expected to decline, reducing supply of melt water to major regions, cities.
Species: 20-30% of all plant and animal species face increased risk of extinction if 1.5-2.5 oC rise.*
Scientific literature review of 29,000 studies of physical and biological changes in natural world: 89% consistent with accompanying warming.
Together, the reported GCM model runs for the 6 IPCC emissions scenarios forecast, for 2100, increases in temperature (central estimate per scenario) of 1.4-5.8 oC.
Most of the uncertainty reflects unknowable human futures (the scenarios); the rest is due to model uncertainties.
A further ~0.7 oC is ‘committed’ (on top of the 0.6oC already realised)
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) already looks conservative. Recent studies indicate accelerating change.
Political discourse in high-income countries is now starting to acknowledge need for 80+% reduction in emissions relative 2000.
The IPCC Sequence of Key Findings……
IPCC (1990) Broad overview of climate change science, discussion of uncertainties and evidence for warming.
IPCC (1995) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.”
IPCC (2001) “Most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (>66%) to be attributable to human activities.”
IPCC (2007) “Warming is unequivocal, and most of the warming of the past 50 years is very likely (90%) due to increases in greenhouse gases.”
Governments require information on climate change for negotiations
The IPCC formed in 1988 under auspices of the United Nations
Function is to provide assessments of the science of climate change
Scientific community contributes widely and on a voluntary basis
75% of the authors in WG1 IPCC (2007) did not work on WG1 IPCC (2001)
Substance of IPCC WG1 report in the hands of scientists
-Each report is an assessment of the state of understanding based upon peer-reviewed published work. IPCC assesses published research but does not do research. Each assessment goes through multiple reviews and revision and re-review over a period of years.
-Informal draft prepared, comments sought from 6-12 outside experts for each chapter (Oct 2004 - Mar 2005).
-Formal first order draft (FOD) reviewed by about 600 reviewers worldwide (Sept -Nov 2005).
-Formal second order draft (SOD) re-reviewed by about 600 experts worldwide and by dozens of governments (April-May 2006).
-Govt comments on revised Summary for Policy Makers (Oct-Nov 2006).
-WG1 received and considered over 30000 comments in total.
-The assessment conclusions are not the views of any single scientist, but reflect a much broader process.
The Working Group I Report
-Started 2004
-Completed February 2007
-152 Authors
-~450 contributors
-~600 expert reviewers
-30,000+ review comments
-Contents
-Summary for Policymakers
-Technical Summary
-11 Chapters
-Frequently Asked Questions
-~5000 literature references
-~1000 pages
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu
opportunities of green businesses clean energy, green energy, and green buildings, to combat climate change.
1.Energy Meter
If you put an energy meter inside a home and show people total usage in real time, a miraculous thing happens, they use about 10% less energy.
By Andrew S. Winston
2.Strategic Approach to Climate
Companies that persist in treating climate change solely as a corporate social responsibility issue, rather than a business problem, will risk the greatest consequences.
By Michael E. Porter and Forest L. Reinhardt
3.Investing in Global Security
Companies can help vulnerable regions plan for climate change combat, reducing their own risks of making proactive investment and supporting policy initiatives that might have resisted in the past, such as tougher local air and water quality standards.
By Peter Schwartz
4.Natural Capitalism
Business strategies built around the radically more productive use of natural resources can solve many environmental problems at a profit
By Paul Hawken, Amony B. Lovins and L. Hunter Lovins
5.Companies will increasingly feel the effects of climate change
Companies that manage and mitigate their exposure to climate change risks while seeking new opportunities for profits will generate a competitive advantage over rivals in a carbon-constrained future.
By Jonathan Lash and Fred Wellington
6.Systemic Model
Shai Agassai’s start-up electric-vehicle services company in Israel, aims to make electric transport as easy, reliable and affordable as patrol-powered cars
7. Secrets to Successful Strategy Execution
Researches shows that enterprise fails at execution because they go straight to structural reorganisation and neglect the most powerful drivers of effectiveness-decision rights and information flow.
By Garry L. Neilson, Karia L. Marin, and Elizabeth Powers.
8.To be continued
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